Three repricings in nine months have left the curve flatter than at any point in this cycle, and clients are asking a different question than they were in January: not how high, but how long.
Duration is no longer the whole argument
For a treasurer weighing a ten-year issue against a five-year, the carry has narrowed enough that the decision turns on refinancing risk rather than headline coupon. We are advising more clients to ladder maturities than to reach for the long end.
What we are watching
Investment-grade issuance calendars, the pace of balance sheet runoff, and whether the recent widening in credit spreads persists through the next reporting season. Any two of the three moving together changes the advice.